Egypt’s ‘Post-Democracy’ Nears Point of No Return

Source:
Al-Monitor
Date of source:
29 Jan 2013
Reference:
Egypt is commemorating the second anniversary of its “Peaceful” Revolution with the shedding of yet
more blood. Violent clashes in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, Damanhour and Port Said left almost 60 dead
and hundreds injured and the numbers are rising.
There are circumstantial factors in every incident triggering
violence. Whether it is the Port Said football fans court verdict or
regular confrontations between protesters and the police, the root
cause is political. It lies in the Muslim Brotherhood failure to
create consensus around the shape of the political process.
Last month, the Muslim Brothers insisted on putting forward the
draft constitution to a hasty referendum despite opposition appeals
to take more time to settle disputed articles. Liberals, leftists and
representatives of Egypt’s churches pulled out of the constituent
assembly which drafted the constitution, leaving only Muslim
Brothers and Salafists to craft a document which should ideally
embody Egyptians’ ideology of coexistence in a country which
had historically prided itself of being a “melting pot” and where
accommodating diversity is a prerequisite for survival.
The referendum revealed that 57% of the voters in Cairo, Egypt’s capital and home to about fifth of
Egyptians, rejected the draft constitution. And while urban voters all over Egypt mostly said no to the
constitution, the Muslim Brothers, election-savvy and superior in organization and funding, managed
to pass the constitution with a 63% majority.
After the vote, a video was widely shared where Yasser Burhamy, a Salafist member of the constituent
assembly, bragged about how Islamists deceived seculars and Christians from the beginning till the
end. He described how Islamists dominated the constituent assembly by placing  secret “sleeper cells”
or sympathizers with the “Islamist Enterprise” secretly in the seats allocated to “seculars” in breach of
reached agreement. He then goes on explaining how he confounded seculars and Christians, whom he
calls Nazerites, with tricky words and definitions from Shariah which would “annul and restrict rights
and freedoms as never before witnessed in any Egyptian constitution,” according to Burhamy’s filmed
confessions! This comes after a revolution which provided freedom for Burhamy and his  Salafist
fellows from prosecution that they suffered from for decades under the Mubarak regime.
Clashes in Egypt reflect Muslim Brotherhood and opposition failure to work together in building a
working democracy with an inclusive political process. Like many countries in Europe, no single
political party or even stream commands an absolute majority in Egypt. This means Islamist and
secular parties must work together to reach agreement on broader issues defining the political process.
In the first round of the presidential elections, Mohammed Morsi, now president, got only 25% of the
votes. This more or less represents the Islamists' share of popular support in Egypt. The problem  persists since the beginning of the revolution as the Muslim Brotherhood insist on getting 100% of
power.
The Muslim Brothers are skilled and experienced in election tactics and mobilization. There is no
doubt about that. But they seem to be too clever for their own good. They are becoming hostage to
their ability to leverage their popular share, thus cornering the rest of the opposition in a squeezed
political space where they will always kick back. This can hardly provide an atmosphere for a stable
and sustainable government. A political party which has 25% popular support would usually seek
coalitions and in so-doing accepts compromises. But for whatever technical reasons, the Brotherhood
believe they do not have to make such compromises. They have been waiting for 85 years and this is
their moment. They managed to get exceptionally much higher share in the elections following the
revolution and they want to cling to that. The reality now is, this is an unsustainable situation and one
which may threaten their future survival.
On the other hand, the opposition, most notably the National Salvation Front (NSF), is limping and
always a few steps behind. With mostly infant organizations and piggy bank financing, they can
hardly turn the wide dissent against the Brotherhood into tangible election gains.
Since the revolution, Egypt has witnessed what we may call “post-democracy.” Failure  of the
democratic process to produce results agreeable to a wide spectrum representing diversity of the
people, and especially the activists, is always met with resistance and pressure through protests,
forcing authority to make amends to reflect voices of parties not even present on the table.
Forces or sentiments poorly represented in the democratic institutions, such as the parliament, were
able for instance to force SCAF and other political forces to amend a deal which would have left
SCAF in power till 2013, bringing a deadline of handing power to a  civilian president to June 30,
2012. Similar pressure forced Morsi to withdraw his “Dictatorial Decrees” in November 2012. And
when the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled to annul the People’s Assembly elected only months
before, activists appalled with the Parliament’s performance applied zero or even “negative” pressure
in sustaining the dissolved lower chamber of the Parliament.
On Sunday, President Morsi announced a state of emergency cities near Egypt's Suez Canal and
invited NSF and other opposition leaders to dialogue the following day. NSF declined to join the
dialogue accusing Morsi of not being serious and demanded guarantees which Morsi did not meet.
People of Suez, Ismailia and Port Said totally ignored the curfew and organized massive rallies in
defiance of the emergency measures imposed. Commenting on the deteriorating security situation and
increasing chaos the Army Chief announced on Tuesday that failure to reach a political  deal threatens
the integrity of the Egyptian State.
With the continued disarray of the political scene, Egypt may be approaching a point of “no-return” to
becoming a failed state on several dimensions. Lack of political consensus is dragging the economy,
preventing a much needed return to normalcy. Tourism is badly hit. Foreign investment, business and
consumer confidence are at record lows. The Egyptian pound is losing ground fast and could go to a
free fall if a political deal is not reached soon. This will in turn send prices of many basic commodities
soaring, which will further increase suffering of many people. What is worse is the general
disintegration of law and order. Militias are being formed and smuggling of arms from Libya has
provided Jihadist organizations with ample supply of heavy ammunitions. If the political forces do not
reach that deal soon, more street fights will erupt and intensify and the country will descend into chaos
at which point the army, supported by local and international demands for intervention, will almost
certainly seize power to prevent further disintegration of the state.
Once this point of “no return” is reached, additional chaos would bring “loss of control” to an
irreversible state when even a military intervention would not be able to fix things or restore order. On the other hand, a military coup will bring Egypt’s transition to square one or even a step below, as
short-term measures which the army would use to regain order may become long term deductions of
newly acquired freedoms. Time will tell if the Egyptian political forces in government and opposition
are able to grasp the risks involved as they push things ever closer to the brink, approaching the
dangerous “point of no return.”