Egypt The Military Moves Toward the Presidency

Source:
Geopolitical Diary
Date of source:
28 Jan 2014
Reference:
The efforts of Egypt's
top military leader,
Gen. Abdel Fattah alSisi, to assume his
country's presidency
reflect a return of the
Arab world's largest
country to the days
of its founding as a
republic following a
military coup in 1952.
As was the case then, the leadership of the armed forces is trying to create a
new civilian ruling class led by generals. However, al-Sisi is no Col. Gamal
Abdel Nasser, the founder of the modern Egyptian state, and Egypt has far
more problems today than it did in the 1950s.
On Monday, al-Sisi was named field marshal, Egypt's highest military rank.
Shortly after Egypt's military-appointed interim president, Adly Mansour,
announced the promotion, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces gave alSisi, who currently holds the portfolio of defense and serves as deputy prime
minister, support for a presidential run. During the meeting of the body of top
generals, al-Sisi reportedly said that "the trust of the people is a call that
demands compliance" and that seeking the presidency was now "the call of
duty."
Today's events confirm what has been
becoming increasingly evident since al-Sisi
mounted the popularly backed military coup
in July, toppling the government of President
Mohammed Morsi: that the general would
assume the presidency for himself instead of playing kingmaker. As the most charismatic
military leader in Egypt today, al-Sisi has capitalized on the recent
overwhelming approval of the new constitution as a self-declared vote of
confidence for his presidency. That said, even after the recent approval of the
new constitution drafted by a military appointed committee, questions
remained about how the general would transition from military chief to civilian
president.
This is why the rise to field marshal was critical. Unlike his
predecessor, Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who also held the rank for many
years, al-Sisi's promotion will allow him to try to control the military even after
becoming a civilian president. A little more than a year ago, we discussed how
civil-military relations in Egypt today parallel those in Pakistan in past decades.
The recent events show al-Sisi following the examples of former Pakistani
presidents Gen. Muhammed Zia-ul-Haq and Gen. Ayub Khan.
Like al-Sisi, Ayub was highly popular when he mounted a coup in 1958 after a
series of failed civilian governments. At the time, he was defense minister for
President Iskandar Mirza, who Ayub ousted before pursuing the presidency
and recreating Pakistan's political system. Most important, Ayub had himself
promoted to field marshal, paving the way for his election in 1964. Though
Ayub appointed his subordinate, Gen. Muhammad Musa, as military chief after
the coup, the new president was able to retain control over the military
through his supreme rank. The arrangement worked well for some five years,
until Ayub transferred power to Musa's successor, Gen. Yahya Khan, amid
popular unrest. (Power remained in the hands of the military.)
Like Ayub, al-Sisi will have to appoint a subordinate as military chief and
defense minister if he assumes the presidency. The deputy chairman of the
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Lt. Gen. Sedki Sobhi, is rumored to be
a leading choice. In any case, we expect al-Sisi to remain president for
sometime to come.
Still, the general will face a difficult situation. Al-Sisi will need to deal with
the parallel challenges of containing Egypt's political unrest and its growing
jihadist insurgency while also inheriting a deeply troubled economy under
heavy stress. Should he prove unable to manage the situation, the general
could meet a fate similar to Ayub's, since Egypt's new military chief and the
Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will only support al-Sisi for as long as he
can govern effectively.
One of the biggest challenges to the government's ability to rule effectively is
the deteriorating security situation. It is unlikely that the military will pursue a
political accommodation with the Muslim Brotherhood anytime soon, which
means that the jihadists could find ample room to aggravate Egypt's security problems. In turn, this could worsen the country's economic woes. The stakes
of al-Sisi's stabilizing the country are immense. Failure would risk undermining
the position of the military -- the only entity preventing Egypt from descending
into chaos.