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Egypt's Election Outcome: Confusion, Fear of Violence and Military Takeover
Both candidates declare victory in second-round election, while military moves to consolidate power
June 19 2012
By: Cornelis Hulsman
CAIRO, Egypt (AWR) – Though official results are not expected to be released until later in the week, both candidates in Egypt's second round presidential election are already claiming victory, with each claiming to have received between 51 and 52 percent of the vote.
The claims of both Muhammad Mursi and Ahmed Shafiq have resulted in confusion, and supporters of both candidates believe that ‘the other’ must be cheating. Ahmed Sarhan, spokesman of Ahmed Shafiq, has accused the Brotherhood of trying to create a "fait accompli" and of risking confrontation on the streets "when official results declare Shafiq to be the winner."
Egypt was already deeply divided between Islamists and non-Islamists, but these elections appear to be deepening the schism, which carries the risk of violent clashes between both groups in society.
Following the stand-off between both candidates, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) declared at a two-hour news conference they would have a monopoly on all lawmaking powers, the power to draft the constitution, extraordinary powers of arrest, control of the national budget and the final say on going to war. The new president, however, would retain a veto over any new laws. The president will also name the prime minister and other cabinet officials. Thus regardless who will become president, his powers will be severely curtailed by the SCAF. Human rights lawyer Gamal Eid calls this “a military coup,” and said "whoever accepts the military coup and the rule of the tanks is complicit."
The standoff started strangely. The Freedom and Justice Party claimed victory for presidential
candidate Muhammad Mursi within one hour after polling stations had closed on Sunday at 10.00 pm. They then claimed to have received 66 percent of the vote on the basis of the results of 86 out of a total of 13,000 polling stations. The Freedom and Justice Party continued making statements about their victory, bringing Muslim Brothers to Tahrir square in celebration.
This morning our staff member Nevine Naguib went to work in our office. She passed Tahrir square at around 7.00 am and found many hundreds of Islamists celebrating a Muhammad Mursi victory. She found the celebrations strange, since it was still too early for any official results. Some people were hitting microbuses with sticks. Some appeared to be thugs who had mixed among people genuinely celebrating. Two veiled women were scared and told Nevine they did not want an Islamist state.
Confusion continued Monday with the Freedom and Justice Party claiming in a press conference at
around 4.00 pm that Muhammad Mursi had obtained around 1 million more votes than Shafiq
and had won with 51.8% following the count of more than 99% of the more than 13,000 poll centers. Al-Ahram Online and al-Masry al-Yom both confirmed Mursi was winning. Mursi made at the press conference a statement promising to be president of all Egyptians, not just those who voted for him. Also chants of "God is great" and "down with military rule" were heard at the press conference.
A Mursi win would be in line with the prediction of German political analyst Friedrich Bokern, who on June 17 emailed me:
“I share the prediction of a Morsi win with many befriended activists, journalists and observers. If no reliable polling data are available, we have only two factors that can help us to make a prediction: vote transfers and recent trends. Regarding vote transfers, I think I have put forward three convincing arguments why Morsi has the higher reserve. The fact that the 6 April Movement endorsed him shows that the Sabbahi vote seems indeed to split in the middle – not counting those who will abstain or invalidate their ballot. And from those Salafists I met, many told me that they did not vote in the first round but will do so now: for Morsi, of course. Those Salafist abstentions you mentioned have certainly neither voted in the first round – hence, they do not make any difference now. Regarding most recent trends, at last, I think the decision of the Supreme Constitutional Council and the following events rather play into the hands of Morsi as well. I have heard from many Egyptians who intended to invalidate their ballot before that they will vote Morsi now – because of the “soft coup” and because the Muslim Brotherhood has no parliamentary majority any more to monopolise power.”
Click here for Friedrich Bokern's earlier analysis:
Arrogance in the Shafiq camp
The conflicting claims show the long-standing divide between the old regime versus the Muslim
Brotherhood. Mursi has been playing on the fear of many of the old regime coming back and thus the revolution being in vain. Shafiq has been playing on a widespread fear for the Brotherhood. Shafiq’s supporters were obviously certain of an election victory. They had much fewer posters in the streets then Muhammad Mursi. The decision of the Supreme Constitutional Council to disband Parliament and shift legislative powers to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is widely believed to be a political move which created fears of a return to pre-revolutionary days. Others called it arrogant to make such a far-reaching decision only two days before the presidential elections, believing it to be a signal that their candidate, Shafiq, was strong enough to beat Mursi. They appear to have been wrong.
Economy
The predictions of a Mursi win has made Egyptian stocks drop and some say this has increased the application for visas to Western countries.
Egyptian blogger Sandmonkey wrote it might even be in the interest of the SCAF to see Mursi win:
"[Ahmed Shafiq] would’ve never been able to deliver on his promises, and the Egyptian people are an impatient lot, so attacks on him, and subsequently SCAF would weaken their popularity amongst the population, with no one else left to blame anymore. So why would they do that? It’s best not to have a candidate, and to turn a blind eye to Morsy’s violations, have him win as the “revolutionary candidate”- because some morons have hyped him as such- and have us deal with the consequences. In reality, SCAF don’t need to make a deal with anyone, because they have all the guns and institutions, so they know that whoever will get in will have to make a deal with them. In the end, there was no SCAF candidate, but rather the former NDP battling the Muslim Brotherhood, and the revolutionaries, instead of recognizing that they are both enemies and choose to stay out of this fight, many of them joined Morsy, something which they will regret for years.”
Christian fear
Fear among Christians is widespread. Lawyer Wael Hassan reported a strong increase in applications for foreign visas, and said lines in front of embassies were growing. Christians strongly fear the growing Islamist influence. Coptic Orthodox Bishop Rufail tried to encourage his flock with words such as “don’t worry, be certain that God is in control and will not forsake His church.” Several churches have been calling for prayer meetings. In Minia three denominations, Orthodox, Protestant and Catholic, were doing so together.
Uncertainty is widespread. No one knows where Egypt is headed.
Cornelis Hulsman is the Editor-in-Chief for Arab West Report
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