What the Coming Referendum Means for Egypt’s New Rulers
Source:
Fikra Forum
Date of source:
14 Jan 2014
Reference:
On January 14, Egyptians are expected to go once again to the polling stations to vote on the newly drafted constitution. It will be the third constitution-related referendum held in Egypt since Mubarak was toppled in February 2011. Just as the past two referendums were critical junctures for those in power at the time, the coming referendum will be crucial to the current military-backed government, or to be more specific, to the military itself.
In 2011 and the first half of 2012, as the revolutionary forces protested the rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), SCAF member General Mamdouh Shaheen framed the referendum as a vote for SCAF’s popular mandate as opposed to a number of revised constitutional amendments. “The people chose SCAF,” he said in an attempt to undermine and delegitimize the raging demonstrations. Likewise, the Muslim Brotherhood-led government, personified in ousted president Mohamed Morsi, rushed through a constitution to legitimize their rule in face of mounting demonstrations following Morsi’s dictatorial constitutional decree in November 2012. The current military-backed government follows suit; it hopes that the outcome of the coming referendum will grant it the seal of popular approval, a prerequisite to rule after the popularly backed coup last July. Yet perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, the army will not just be hoping for a “yes vote” on the constitution.
It is widely accepted that any referendum in Egypt will be approved by voters due to the desire of most Egyptians for stability and for the transition to progress. But the government and its military backers will be looking for something beyond a mere majority approval on the constitution: they will be looking for the percentage of voter turnout, or the absolute number of eligible voters who will heed their call and feel compelled to vote.
During the 2012 referendum, it was a huge surprise that only 32.8% of voters participated (and 36% of participants voted no) even though the Brotherhood leadership and their Salafi allies made sure to portray their constitution as if it was religiously sanctioned by God himself. The army in particular will be looking closely at the turnout to know if its own political process will urge more voters to go to the polls. In other words, the turnout must significantly exceed 33% if the army is to claim that it is officially backed by the majority of Egyptians.
If the outcome of the referendum favors the military-backed government, it will be used to further undermine the Brotherhood and their claims that they are the legitimate rulers of the country. The outcome will also be used to send a message to Western critics that “democracy has been restored” and their “beloved ballot box” has spoken. The current leadership knows that Western powers feel uneasy after the military ousted the country’s first elected civilian president and they hope the referendum will put the seal of “ballot box legitimacy” on the military’s popular political intervention.
The outcome of the referendum may also offer clues about who might be the country’s next president. Speculations are rising as to whether or not General Abdel Fatah el-Sisi will remove the military uniform, don a suit and run for president. Until now, Sisi has not given a definite answer as to whether or not he has decided to run. I believe he is waiting for the magic number: the voter turnout figure. If it is high, he will take it as public support and might decide to run and appease his adoring fans.
In addition, the coming vote will show Egypt’s current polarization and the sharp schism between the country’s two main influencers: the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. Christians, a threatened minority that supports the strongman against the threatening religious right, are expected to overwhelmingly vote in favor of the constitution, while pro-Brotherhood Muslims will heed the call of their organization and boycott the referendum. The middle class, who turned against the Brotherhood over the past two years, will likely vote in favor, while the majority of Salafis who do not agree with the Nour Party’s decision to support the coup will either vote “No” or boycott. And just as occurred in the 2012 referendum under the Brotherhood, the average Egyptians who seek normalcy will vote in favor of this constitution.
The referendum will be yet another milestone that the country will have to pass, but judging from the many milestones that Egypt has passed so far, it is uncertain that it will lead to stability.
In 2011 and the first half of 2012, as the revolutionary forces protested the rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), SCAF member General Mamdouh Shaheen framed the referendum as a vote for SCAF’s popular mandate as opposed to a number of revised constitutional amendments. “The people chose SCAF,” he said in an attempt to undermine and delegitimize the raging demonstrations. Likewise, the Muslim Brotherhood-led government, personified in ousted president Mohamed Morsi, rushed through a constitution to legitimize their rule in face of mounting demonstrations following Morsi’s dictatorial constitutional decree in November 2012. The current military-backed government follows suit; it hopes that the outcome of the coming referendum will grant it the seal of popular approval, a prerequisite to rule after the popularly backed coup last July. Yet perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, the army will not just be hoping for a “yes vote” on the constitution.
It is widely accepted that any referendum in Egypt will be approved by voters due to the desire of most Egyptians for stability and for the transition to progress. But the government and its military backers will be looking for something beyond a mere majority approval on the constitution: they will be looking for the percentage of voter turnout, or the absolute number of eligible voters who will heed their call and feel compelled to vote.
During the 2012 referendum, it was a huge surprise that only 32.8% of voters participated (and 36% of participants voted no) even though the Brotherhood leadership and their Salafi allies made sure to portray their constitution as if it was religiously sanctioned by God himself. The army in particular will be looking closely at the turnout to know if its own political process will urge more voters to go to the polls. In other words, the turnout must significantly exceed 33% if the army is to claim that it is officially backed by the majority of Egyptians.
If the outcome of the referendum favors the military-backed government, it will be used to further undermine the Brotherhood and their claims that they are the legitimate rulers of the country. The outcome will also be used to send a message to Western critics that “democracy has been restored” and their “beloved ballot box” has spoken. The current leadership knows that Western powers feel uneasy after the military ousted the country’s first elected civilian president and they hope the referendum will put the seal of “ballot box legitimacy” on the military’s popular political intervention.
The outcome of the referendum may also offer clues about who might be the country’s next president. Speculations are rising as to whether or not General Abdel Fatah el-Sisi will remove the military uniform, don a suit and run for president. Until now, Sisi has not given a definite answer as to whether or not he has decided to run. I believe he is waiting for the magic number: the voter turnout figure. If it is high, he will take it as public support and might decide to run and appease his adoring fans.
In addition, the coming vote will show Egypt’s current polarization and the sharp schism between the country’s two main influencers: the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. Christians, a threatened minority that supports the strongman against the threatening religious right, are expected to overwhelmingly vote in favor of the constitution, while pro-Brotherhood Muslims will heed the call of their organization and boycott the referendum. The middle class, who turned against the Brotherhood over the past two years, will likely vote in favor, while the majority of Salafis who do not agree with the Nour Party’s decision to support the coup will either vote “No” or boycott. And just as occurred in the 2012 referendum under the Brotherhood, the average Egyptians who seek normalcy will vote in favor of this constitution.
The referendum will be yet another milestone that the country will have to pass, but judging from the many milestones that Egypt has passed so far, it is uncertain that it will lead to stability.
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