For decades now, Egyptian Coptic Christians and Muslims have been citing widely diverging numbers for the percentage of Christians in Egypt. In the absence of reliable, published data, the figures vary wildly, anywhere from 6 to 24 percent of population. Typically, figures claiming high percentages of Christians in the country correlate with arguments used to show discrimination against Christians such as the lack of equal representation in government positions or the difficulty of obtaining permission to build churches. The diverging population claims are a source of tensions. Since the figures are contestable and the related arguments pointing to persecution are also contested, Muslims and Christians face difficulties to work on human rights issues that address freedom of religion and convictions.

Following the Council of Chalcedon (451CE) Copts have been persecuted by the Byzantine church and developed an identity of a persecuted minority through which they have maintained themselves. This has continued under Islam. The belief that Coptic Christians are a persecuted minority is thus a major part of the Coptic identity and disputing the official narrative about the percentage of Christians in Egypt would be disputing a major part of their identity.

The most common response in Egypt is to avoid discussing the validity of particular population numbers for the sake of higher political objectives such as more rights for religious minorities or maintaining the support of Christians for the current government.  For these reasons neither the Church nor the State benefit by publishing scientifically justified, verifiable, Coptic Christian population statistics.

Reliable statistics and scholarly research have generated figures in the range of 6 percent of the population, but these are hardly known to the wider public. Church leaders and political activists try to undermine the trustworthiness of this number by claiming it is politically motivated but fail to produce verifiable alternate figures. The Egyptian State is not willing to contradict Christian leaders and activists, because they need their political support and their contributions to the Egyptian economy. Hence, the government is unwilling to publish the population data they have access to.  At the same time, the Egyptian State has been oppressing political Islamists since their removal from power in 2013. At the time, Islamists were already on a collision course with Christians, because to a large extent the latter supported the Islamists’ opponents which ultimately removed the Islamists from power. The alliance between Government and Church leaders has thus added to the tensions between Christians and Islamists.  Many Christians fear that their fortunes will decline if the Islamists ever come to power, and this is one reason why Egyptian Christians have been emigrating in larger proportions than Egyptian Muslims. Another main reason is Egypt’s weak economy.

To reduce the tensions, Church and Government leaders should acknowledge and accept accurate and verifiable population statistics of Christians living in the country.  Yet if one depends on support from the Church or the Government, it is impossible to obtain such data. This is one reason why Cornelis Hulsman established the Egyptian non-governmental organization (NGO), Center for Arab-West Understanding (CAWU) as an independent think tank. CAWU contributes articles to the electronic publication Arab-West Report which has published several studies about the changes in Coptic demographics in Egypt. 

Hulsman presented his work on Coptic population statistics under the title “Migration: Voting with the Feet?,” at the 7th International Conference of the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (SGP), October 11 and 12, 2019.